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Sep 22, 2008

Are You Born to Be a Billionaire?

by Maureen Farrell, Forbes.com

Empire builders like Bill Gates and Sam Walton aren't just great businessmen. They are bona fide revolutionaries.

Self-made billionaires don't dominate industries--they transform them and spawn new ones. That takes more than intelligence, courage and luck. It takes divine-like vision.

Billionaire entrepreneurs are "not working within the confines of the current market," says Gerald Kraines, chief executive of the Levinson Institute, a business consulting firm in Jaffey, N.H. "They're anticipating things much further afield. You have to see spaces that no one else sees."

The world's self-made billionaires certainly have vision in spades, spanning everything from how computers work to how people shop. But the ability to see around corners isn't the only quality that separates the very accomplished from the stratospherically wealthy. To crack the $1 billion barrier, you need total, unwavering belief in your vision--and an immutable will to pull it off.

"[Billionaire entrepreneurs] need a deep passion and a point of view about the future," says Peter Skarzynski, chief executive of Strategos, a Chicago-based consulting firm that advises global companies, including Nokia and Whirlpool. "They fundamentally believe that they have a better way to solve a set of problems than how they're being solved now."

Billionaires also have a seemingly ravenous appetite for risk. It's hard enough for many of us to muster the courage to abandon our cubicles and start a small company, let alone build an empire. And while the risks pile up as businesses expand, billionaires have a confidence bordering on arrogance that checks their fear and doubt, says Skarzynski.

Are you a born billionaire? Before you tackle a serious growth strategy and all its attendant hassles, ask yourself some hard questions at the outset, says executive psychologist Debra Condren, who has worked with big names like 3M, Chevron and Hewlett-Packard.

The most important one: Why go big at all? Are you looking to cash out in a sale? Enamored of the thought of having your own stock ticker? Suffused with competitive desire? Whatever your reason, get a grip on it before you decide to kick your zealous pursuits into high gear.

Next, ask yourself if you are willing to make tough decisions for the growth of your company. If you have an intense loyalty to the small group who helped get things off the ground, understand that those folks may not be able to come along for the ride. If you're not comfortable supplanting (or firing) them, stay small.

For entrepreneurs who prize their independence, ask yourselves how much of it you're willing to give up. As the demands mount, both your schedule and decisions become less your own; worse, you may have investors and board members to appease.

"It becomes very hard for company founders to accept that they are no longer the real boss," says Carl Robinson, a psychologist who works primarily with growing, middle-market companies.

Like holding forth in public? You'd better, because companies of any significant size need a public face. Entrepreneurs who thrive on public performances--weekly meetings, shareholder gripe sessions, even television interviews--have an easier time than those who shun the spotlight.

"You need to have the ability to fill a room and inspire people," says Condren. If public speaking isn't your forté, but you're still hankering to grow, find a confident substitute who can sell your story.

Not only do you have to be able to communicate, you need a knack for building consensus. In most cases, the bigger your business, the more input you need from those around you--and that means being willing and able to marshal them to your cause. Have a my-way-or-the-highway mentality? Can your growth plans.

In the end, chasing billionaire status--and not crashing along the way--is as much about knowing who you are as it is about knowing how to nab new customers or manage inventory. Who knows? Maybe a modest $100 million might be a better fit.

Copyrighted, Forbes.com. All rights reserved.

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Jun 19, 2008

Seven Forehead-Slapping Stock Blunders

by Glenn Curtis

Ignorance may be bliss, but not knowing why your stocks are failing and money is disappearing from your pockets is a long way from paradise. In this article, we'll uncover some of the more common investing faux pas, as well as provide you with suggestions on how to avoid them.

1. Ignoring Catalysts
The financial pundits, trade journals and business schools teach that proper valuation is the key to stock selection. This is only half of the picture because calculating P/E ratios and running cash flow spreadsheets can only show where a company is at a given point in time - it cannot tell us where it is heading.

Therefore, in addition to a quantitative evaluation of a company, you must also do a qualitative study so that you can determine which catalysts will drive earnings going forward.

Some good questions to ask yourself include:

* Is the company about to acquire a very profitable enterprise?
* Is a potential blockbuster product about to be launched?
* Are economies of scale being realized at the company's new plant and are margins about to rise dramatically?
* What will drive earnings and the stock price going forward?

2. Catching the Falling Knife
Investors love to buy companies on the cheap, but far too often, investors buy in before all of the bad news is out in the public domain, and/or before the stock stops its free fall. Remember, new lows in a company's share price often beget further new lows as investors see the shares dropping, become disheartened and then sell their shares. Waiting until the selling pressure has subsided is almost always your best bet to avoid getting cut on a falling knife stock. (To learn more, read How Investors Often Cause The Market's Problems.)

3. Failing to Consider Macroeconomic Variables
You have found a company you want to invest in. Its valuation is superior to that of its peers. It has several new products that are about to be launched, and sales could skyrocket. Even the insiders are buying the stock, which bolsters your confidence all the more.

But if you haven't considered the current macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and inflation, and how they might impact the sector you are invested in, you've made a fatal mistake!

Keep in mind that a retailer or electronics manufacturer is subject to a number of factors beyond its control that could adversely impact the share price. Things to consider are oil prices, labor costs, scarcity of raw materials, strikes, interest rate fluctuations and consumer spending. (For more on these factors, see Macroeconomic Analysis and Where Top Down Meets Bottom Up.)

4. Forgetting About Dilution
Be on the lookout for companies that are continuously issuing millions of shares and causing dilution, or those that have issued convertible debt. Convertible debt may be converted by the holder into common shares at a set price. Conversion will result in a lower value of holdings for existing shareholders

A better idea is to seek companies that are repurchasing stock and therefore reducing the number of shares outstanding. This process increases earnings per share (EPS) and it tells investors that the company feels that there is no better investment than their own company at the moment. (You can read more about buybacks in A Breakdown Of Stock Buybacks.)

5. Not Recognizing Seasonal Fluctuations
You can't fight the Fed. By that same token, you can't expect that your shares will appreciate even if the company's shares are widely traded in high volumes. The fact is that many companies (such as retailers) go through boom and bust cycles year in and year out. Luckily, these cycles are fairly predictable, so do yourself a favor and look at a five-year chart before buying shares in a company. Does the stock typically wane during a particular part of the year and then pick up during others? If so, consider timing your purchase or sale accordingly. (To learn more, see Capitalizing On Seasonal Effects.)

6. Missing Sector Trends
Some stocks do buck the larger trend; however, this behavior usually occurs because there is some huge catalyst that propels the stock either higher or lower. For the most part, companies trade in relative parity to their peers. This keeps their stock price movements within a trading band or range. Keep this in mind as you consider your entry/exit points in a stock.

Also, if you own stock in a semiconductor company (for example), understand that if other semiconductor companies are experiencing certain problems, your company will too. The same is true if the situation was reversed, and positive news hit the industry.

7. Avoiding Technical Trends
Many people shy away from technical analysis, but you don't have to be a chartist to be able to identify certain technical trends. A simple graph depicting 50-day and 200-day moving averages as well as daily closing prices can give investors a good picture of where a stock is headed. (To learn about this method, read the Basics Of Technical Analysis.)

Be wary of companies that trade and/or close below those averages. It usually means the shares will go lower. The same can be said to the upside. Also remember that as volume trails off, the stock price typically follows suit.

Lastly, look for general trends. Has the stock been under accumulation or distribution over the past year? In other words, is the price gradually moving up, or down? This is simple information that can be gleaned from a chart. It is truly surprising that most investors don't take advantage of these simple and accessible tools.

The Bottom line
There are a myriad of mistakes that investors can and do make. These are simply some of the more common ones. In any case, it pays to think about factors beyond what will propel the stock you own higher. A stock's past and expected performance in comparison to its peers, as well as its performance when subjected to economic conditions that may impact the company, are some other factors to consider.

To read about more investor follies, check out Seven Common Investor Mistakes, Learning From Others' Mistakes and Seven Common Financial Mistakes.

by Glenn Curtis,

Glenn Curtis started his career as an equity analyst at Cantone Research, a New Jersey-based regional brokerage firm. He has since worked as an equity analyst and a financial writer at a number of print/web publications and brokerage firms including Registered Representative Magazine, Advanced Trading Magazine, Worldlyinvestor.com, RealMoney.com, TheStreet.com and Prudential Securities. Curtis has also held Series 6,7,24 and 63 securities licenses.

Source : Forbes

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