Cantik vs Kaya

Sebuah analogi menarik tentang hal yang bisa kita investasikan...

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Seorang gadis muda dan cantik, mengirimkan surat ke sebuah majalah terkenal, dengan judul: "Apa yang harus saya lakukan untuk dapat menikah dengan pria kaya?"

Saya akan jujur, tentang apa yang akan coba saya katakan di sini. tahun ini saya berumur 25 tahun. Saya sangat cantik, mempunyai selera yang bagus akan fashion. Saya ingin menikahi seorang pria dengan penghasilan minimal $500ribu/tahun. Anda mungkin berpikir saya matre, tapi penghasilan $1juta/tahun hanya dianggap sebagai kelas menengah di New York .

Persyaratan saya tidak tinggi. apakah ada di forum ini mempunyai penghasilan $500ribu/tahun? apa kalian semua sudah menikah? yang saya ingin tanyakan:

Apa yang harus saya lakukan untuk menikahi orang kaya seperti anda? Yang terkaya pernah berkencan dengan saya hanya $250rb/tahun. Bila seseorang ingin pindah ke area pemukiman elit di City Garden New York , penghasilan $ 250rb/tahun tidaklah cukup. Dengan kerendahan hati, saya ingin menanyakan:

• Dimana para lajang2 kaya hang out?
• Kisaran umur berapa yang harus saya cari?
• Kenapa kebanyakan istri dari orang2 kaya hanya berpenampilan standar?
• Saya pernah bertemu dengan beberapa wanita yang memiliki penampilan tidak menarik, tapi mereka bisa menikahi pria kaya?
• Bagaimana, anda memutuskan, siapa yang bisa menjadi istrimu, dan siapa yang hanya bisa menjadi pacar?

Si Cantik

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Inilah balasan dari seorang pria yang bekerja di Finansial Wall Street :

saya telah membaca surat mu dengan semangat. saya rasa banyak gadis2 di luar sana yang mempunyai pertanyaan yang sama. ijinkan saya untuk menganalisa situasi mu sebagai seorang profesional. Pendapatan tahunan saya lebih dari $500rb, sesuai syaratmu, jadi saya harap semuanya tidak berpikir saya main2 di sini. dari sisi seorang bisnis, merupakan keputusan salah untuk menikahimu.

Jawabannya mudah. Saja, saya coba jelaskan, coba tempatkan "kecantikan" dan "uang" bersisian, dimana anda mencoba menukar kecantikan dengan uang: pihak A menyediakan kecantikan, dan pihak B membayar untuk itu, hal yg masuk akal. Tapi ada masalah disini, kecantikan anda akan menghilang, tapi uang saya tidak akan hilang tanpa ada alasan yang bagus. faktanya, pendapatan saya mungkin akan meningkat dari tahun ke tahun, tapi anda tidak akan bertambah cantik tahun demi tahun.

Karena itu, dari sudut pandang ekonomi, saya adalah aset yang akan meningkat, dan anda adalah aset yang akan menyusut. bukan hanya penyusutan normal, tapi penyusutan eksponensial.

Jika hanya (kecantikan) itu aset anda, nilai anda akan sangat mengkhawatirkan 10 tahun mendatang. dari aturan yg kita gunakan di Wall Street, setiap pertukaran memiliki posisi, kencan dengan anda juga merupakan posisi tukar. jika nilai tukar turun, kita akan menjualnya dan adalah ide buruk untuk menyimpan dalam jangka lama, seperti pernikahan yang anda inginkan. Mungkin terdengar kasar, tapi untuk membuat keputusan bijaksana, setiap aset dengan nilai depresiasi besar akan dijual atau "disewakan." siapa saja dengan penghasilan tahunan $500rb, bukan orang bodoh, kami hanya berkencan dengan anda, tapi tidak akan menikahi anda.

Saya akan menyarankan agar anda lupakan saja untuk mencari cara menikahi orang kaya. lebih baik anda menjadikan diri anda orang kaya dengan pendapatan $500rb/tahun. ini kesempatan lebih bagus daripada mencari orang kaya bodoh. mudah2an balasan ini dapat membantu. jika anda tertarik untuk servis "sewa pinjam," hubungi saya.

TTD,
J.P.. Morgan _,_._,___

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Time is All We Have: 3 Ways to Increase Return on Investment

"Do not squander time for that is the stuff life is made of."- Benjamin Franklin

Return on investment (ROI) is a term you hear frequently, usually in relation to business and finance. The goal (obviously) is to maximize return on the money you invest. The implications of this concept go much deeper when you start to think of time as your primary investment rather than money. Everything you do is an investment of time. When you watch television, you’re making an investment in entertainment. If you watch a show that sucks, you’ve made a bad investment and receive a poor return for your time.

In many ways time is more valuable than money. You’ll always have the opportunity to make more money, but once time has been spent it’s gone forever. When you think of time as a commodity, and all of your actions as investments, it changes the way you approach every day decisions.

We spend time in many different ways: working, eating, sleep, exercise, entertainment, etc. All of these things are important. When we start investing too heavily in one area and not enough in another we create problems for ourselves. The key is investing our time in a manner that perfectly balances each of these areas and forms a productive and pleasurable life.

Deciding how to invest our time is a formidable task. Unlike business, there are no percentages or spreadsheets to reference. We have to rely on experience and intuition. I’m far from a master at this, but these are a few principals I use to guide my decision making.

1. Look for Multiple Positives
A multiple positive is an activity that generates a positive return in more than one area. These are great for ROI because they multiply returns and incur fewer losses. One of my best multiple positives is working on this website. It’s something that I find extremely entertaining, it contributes to a small (but steadily growing) stream of income, and it develops skills that I’ll be able to use the rest of my life like writing, web design, and networking.

Every individual will have different multiple positives, the important part is finding ones that work for you. A multiple positive for a software developer might be working on open source or a personal project. It can even be as simple as playing basketball, a fun game that’s also great exercise. The key to finding multiple positives is finding areas where different positive actions intersect. If I can find a way to get paid to eat delicious food I’ll be golden.

2. Avoid Multiple Negatives
Multiple negatives are the same as multiple positives, except the complete opposite. These are activities that detract from multiple areas of life. One of my favorite weaknesses is going out drinking. This hurts me in three ways: the time spent isn’t productive, drinks are expensive, and the effect of staying up late and being hungover usually ruins the following day. If I don’t have a good time, this is basically the worst possible scenario.

I’m not saying you should never go out and have a good time. To be happy we need socialization and excitement. My point is that we should always try to minimize the negative impact of our actions. I try to do this by minimizing the amount I drink and only going out when I know it will be enjoyable. Often we get caught in a pattern of poor investment. Over time, the benefits fade away and what remains is mostly negative, but we keep doing it out of habit. This can be avoided by periodically analyzing our behavior. Is it still a good investment, or is it time to make a change?

3. Utilize the Power of Compounding
I’m sure that everyone reading this understands the power of compound interest. When you invest money you earn interest. Then you start earning interest on the money you earned from interest. Over many years this continues to compound and eventually leads to a very large sum of money. The same concept applies to time. If you invest time by working hard when you’re young, you put yourself in a position to succeed that will continue compounding for the rest of your life. If you waste time when you’re young, you can’t make up for it later because you’ve lost the opportunity to utilize the power compounding.

Many people my age fail realize this, in fact I didn’t, or at least I didn’t act on it, until fairly recently. The primary reason is that we’re trapped in the childish mindset. As a child, your only responsibility is entertaining yourself. You needn’t worry about investing your time because Mommy and Daddy are there to take care of you and they’re usually happy as long as you stay out of trouble. These days many young adults ride the childish mindset straight through college.

After graduation we’re expected to adopt the adult mindset (and the responsibility of investing our time) instantaneously. A lot of people don’t get it, and every year they waste trying to extend the college days is an opportunity that can never be replaced.

Many people think their time isn’t valuable when they aren’t working, so they throw it away on activities that have a poor return on investment and don’t build for the future. The truth is, no one else is going to consider your time valuable until you do. If you want to acquire the wealth that will provide the freedom to live your ideal lifestyle, start thinking of every decision as an investment. Nothing is insignificant.

One mental model that can help you make better decisions is imagining that your life is a corporation and you’re the only employee. If you were the CEO of John Doe Incorporated, and were obliged to maximize profit on behalf of investors, what would you make yourself do? You’ll find that this sort of analysis simplifies many decisions and increases return on investment.

Source : http://www.pickthebrain.com/blog/time-is-all-we-have-3-ways-to-increase-return-on-investment/

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Seven Forehead-Slapping Stock Blunders

by Glenn Curtis

Ignorance may be bliss, but not knowing why your stocks are failing and money is disappearing from your pockets is a long way from paradise. In this article, we'll uncover some of the more common investing faux pas, as well as provide you with suggestions on how to avoid them.

1. Ignoring Catalysts
The financial pundits, trade journals and business schools teach that proper valuation is the key to stock selection. This is only half of the picture because calculating P/E ratios and running cash flow spreadsheets can only show where a company is at a given point in time - it cannot tell us where it is heading.

Therefore, in addition to a quantitative evaluation of a company, you must also do a qualitative study so that you can determine which catalysts will drive earnings going forward.

Some good questions to ask yourself include:

* Is the company about to acquire a very profitable enterprise?
* Is a potential blockbuster product about to be launched?
* Are economies of scale being realized at the company's new plant and are margins about to rise dramatically?
* What will drive earnings and the stock price going forward?

2. Catching the Falling Knife
Investors love to buy companies on the cheap, but far too often, investors buy in before all of the bad news is out in the public domain, and/or before the stock stops its free fall. Remember, new lows in a company's share price often beget further new lows as investors see the shares dropping, become disheartened and then sell their shares. Waiting until the selling pressure has subsided is almost always your best bet to avoid getting cut on a falling knife stock. (To learn more, read How Investors Often Cause The Market's Problems.)

3. Failing to Consider Macroeconomic Variables
You have found a company you want to invest in. Its valuation is superior to that of its peers. It has several new products that are about to be launched, and sales could skyrocket. Even the insiders are buying the stock, which bolsters your confidence all the more.

But if you haven't considered the current macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and inflation, and how they might impact the sector you are invested in, you've made a fatal mistake!

Keep in mind that a retailer or electronics manufacturer is subject to a number of factors beyond its control that could adversely impact the share price. Things to consider are oil prices, labor costs, scarcity of raw materials, strikes, interest rate fluctuations and consumer spending. (For more on these factors, see Macroeconomic Analysis and Where Top Down Meets Bottom Up.)

4. Forgetting About Dilution
Be on the lookout for companies that are continuously issuing millions of shares and causing dilution, or those that have issued convertible debt. Convertible debt may be converted by the holder into common shares at a set price. Conversion will result in a lower value of holdings for existing shareholders

A better idea is to seek companies that are repurchasing stock and therefore reducing the number of shares outstanding. This process increases earnings per share (EPS) and it tells investors that the company feels that there is no better investment than their own company at the moment. (You can read more about buybacks in A Breakdown Of Stock Buybacks.)

5. Not Recognizing Seasonal Fluctuations
You can't fight the Fed. By that same token, you can't expect that your shares will appreciate even if the company's shares are widely traded in high volumes. The fact is that many companies (such as retailers) go through boom and bust cycles year in and year out. Luckily, these cycles are fairly predictable, so do yourself a favor and look at a five-year chart before buying shares in a company. Does the stock typically wane during a particular part of the year and then pick up during others? If so, consider timing your purchase or sale accordingly. (To learn more, see Capitalizing On Seasonal Effects.)

6. Missing Sector Trends
Some stocks do buck the larger trend; however, this behavior usually occurs because there is some huge catalyst that propels the stock either higher or lower. For the most part, companies trade in relative parity to their peers. This keeps their stock price movements within a trading band or range. Keep this in mind as you consider your entry/exit points in a stock.

Also, if you own stock in a semiconductor company (for example), understand that if other semiconductor companies are experiencing certain problems, your company will too. The same is true if the situation was reversed, and positive news hit the industry.

7. Avoiding Technical Trends
Many people shy away from technical analysis, but you don't have to be a chartist to be able to identify certain technical trends. A simple graph depicting 50-day and 200-day moving averages as well as daily closing prices can give investors a good picture of where a stock is headed. (To learn about this method, read the Basics Of Technical Analysis.)

Be wary of companies that trade and/or close below those averages. It usually means the shares will go lower. The same can be said to the upside. Also remember that as volume trails off, the stock price typically follows suit.

Lastly, look for general trends. Has the stock been under accumulation or distribution over the past year? In other words, is the price gradually moving up, or down? This is simple information that can be gleaned from a chart. It is truly surprising that most investors don't take advantage of these simple and accessible tools.

The Bottom line
There are a myriad of mistakes that investors can and do make. These are simply some of the more common ones. In any case, it pays to think about factors beyond what will propel the stock you own higher. A stock's past and expected performance in comparison to its peers, as well as its performance when subjected to economic conditions that may impact the company, are some other factors to consider.

To read about more investor follies, check out Seven Common Investor Mistakes, Learning From Others' Mistakes and Seven Common Financial Mistakes.

by Glenn Curtis, (Contact Author Biography)

Glenn Curtis started his career as an equity analyst at Cantone Research, a New Jersey-based regional brokerage firm. He has since worked as an equity analyst and a financial writer at a number of print/web publications and brokerage firms including Registered Representative Magazine, Advanced Trading Magazine, Worldlyinvestor.com, RealMoney.com, TheStreet.com and Prudential Securities. Curtis has also held Series 6,7,24 and 63 securities licenses.

Source : Forbes

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The Three "Bedrock" Ideas Behind Warren Buffett's Billions

The Three "Bedrock" Ideas Behind Warren Buffett's Billions

Posted By:Alex Crippen

Topics:Stock Market Investment Strategy Warren Buffett

Companies:Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

During his European tour last week, Warren Buffett held four news conferences in four days and answered a lot of questions.

While a few of his answers generated headlines, most did not.

There was, however, one answer in Madrid that stood out to me as I listened to all those questions and answers in a variety of languages.

It's not new, so it's not news. But this one, brief, answer is essential to understanding how Warren Buffett has been so incredibly successful with his investments over the decades.

Buffett was asked to name the most important lesson he learned from his mentor, Benjamin Graham.

Instead he listed three, using just 85 seconds to deftly describe the trio of "bedrock" ideas that have helped make him the world's richest man.

It all comes from this ....

Warren Buffett: The three most important lessons I learned were all from the same book, The Intelligent Investor. It was written first by (Benjamin) Graham in 1949. They appear in chapters 8 and chapters 20.

The first is, to look at stocks as pieces of businesses, not as little items on a chart that move around, not as ticker symbols, not as something that might split next week or next month or something of the sort. But, rather, to look at the business, value the business, divide by the shares outstanding, and decide whether you really want to own a piece of that business at that price.

The second one was his commentary about your attitude toward the stock market. That it is there to serve you rather than to instruct you, and he used the famous Mr. Market example of that. That attitude is fundamental to making money in stocks over time.

And the final item he talked about was margin of safety. When you buy a stock that you think is worth 10 dollars, you don't pay $9.95 for it, because you can't be that precise in estimating its value. So you leave a considerable margin of safety for both what you don't understand and for the vagueries of the future.

And those three ideas, which I learned when I was 19 years old, have been the bedrock of everything I've done since.

Current Berkshire price:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc US%3bBRK.A 127910.0 3940.00 +3.18% NYSE

Quote Chart News Profile

[US;BRK.A 127910.0 3940.00 (+3.18%) ]

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